Welcome back, NAR members.
As always, we’re here to keep you informed while cutting out the fluff. Let’s get right into it.

Quick note: this one is a little longer than usual because it’s a deep dive monthly market update.

Also, if you ever need to knock out your CE requirements, or run the numbers on a deal, or set up a more structured CRM for your business, using our links helps support this newsletter and keeps it free.

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The latest national resale data available as of today is still February data. NAR’s March existing-home sales report does not come out until April 13, and the Census Bureau delayed both the February and March new-home sales and residential construction releases into late April and early May. So this update is built on the freshest hard national housing data currently available, plus March listing and mortgage-rate data.

Existing-home sales rose 1.7% month over month in February to a 4.09 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Inventory also improved, rising to 1.29 million units, or a 3.8-month supply. The median existing-home price was $398,000, up just 0.3% year over year, while NAR’s Housing Affordability Index improved to 117.6, its highest reading since March 2022.

That is the clearest signal in the market right now:

Conditions are improving, but not loosening dramatically.

Inventory is better than it was. Affordability is better than it was. But this is still not an easy market in the way many buyers hoped it would become.

Pending home sales — which are a forward-looking indicator — rose 1.8% in February from the prior month, though they were still down 0.8% year over year nationally. The South and West posted year-over-year gains, while the Northeast and Midwest remained weaker.

That fits what many agents are already feeling on the ground:

NAR’s February REALTORS® Confidence Index also showed that 34% of buyers were first-time buyers, 31% were all-cash, and 14% of contracts had delayed settlements in the past three months.

So the market is not frozen. But it is very clearly more selective.

Realtor.com’s March housing data showed a market that became more buyer-friendly than last year, but only by degree. The national median listing price was $415,450, down 2.2% year over year. Active listings rose to 964,477, up 8.1% year over year, and new listings jumped 21.2% from February. Median days on market came in at 57, up 4 days from a year ago. Meanwhile, 16.2% of active listings had a price reduction in March.

The takeaway for agents is simple:

This is becoming more of a pricing-and-presentation market again.

Less “list it and wait.”
More “price it right, position it right, and explain value clearly.”

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.46% on April 2, up from 6.38% the prior week and 6.22% two weeks earlier. The 15-year averaged 5.77%.

That rate move matters because the market had just started to feel more workable for buyers again. Even modest rate increases can quickly narrow affordability, especially when buyers are already payment-sensitive.

In other words, we are still in a market where financing volatility changes behavior fast.

The labor market remains reasonably stable. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Construction was one of the sectors that added jobs.

Builder sentiment also ticked up slightly in March, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rising to 38, though that is still a subdued reading overall and buyer traffic remained weak at 25.

So the broader setup is not recessionary panic. It is more like:

If you are talking to buyers, the message is:

They have a bit more leverage than they did a year ago, but not unlimited leverage. Better inventory does not mean every seller is desperate.

If you are talking to sellers, the message is:

The pricing strategy matters more now. More competition and longer market times mean the old “start high and negotiate later” approach is riskier.

And if you are talking to both sides, the bigger truth is:

This is still a timing market.
Not because anyone can perfectly time the market.
But because small changes in rates, supply, and buyer confidence are still moving behavior faster than usual.

If you ever end up needing to complete CE courses, or analyze a property or deal more clearly, or get your pipeline and follow-up system dialed in, using our links helps fund the research that goes into these updates and keeps the free edition free.

We are considering an optional premium Saturday edition: a more detailed, ad-free weekend deep dive for readers who want a much heavier weekly brief on real estate, mortgage trends, housing data, and agent strategy.

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